Quelle

The following payoff table is, in our analysis, Syriza’s perception of the current situation.

Our view is that Syriza believes that caving in to the EU will end its political movement before it really begins. Caving in produces the outcome of -100 in quadrants one and three. Thus, its only positive payoff is to press for restructuring at all costs, while the EU caves (quadrant two outcome). At the same time, we think Tsipras believes that the costs to the EU of caving to Syriza aren’t all that high, but a situation in which both parties hold (quadrant four outcome), which probably entails a Greek exit from the Eurozone, is devastating for the EU. If the Eurozone breaks up, the Pandora Media Inc (NYSE:P)’s Box of European nationalism is released with all the risks that entails. The conditions that led to two world wars will return. And, most importantly, Germany loses its single currency free-trade zone. Thus, we fear that Syriza has concluded that the EU/Germany/ECB has no choice but to cave as long as Syriza holds firm.

The following is our view on the EU/German/ECB payoff table.

From the troika’s perspective, a face-saving outcome in which both parties cave on some matters is the best outcome. They fully expect Syriza to take that option and believe the aggressive comments against extending the current deal or even more “extend and pretend” on debt is just political rhetoric for domestic consumption. Thus, the leaders of the EU keep looking for Syriza to signal a first quadrant outcome. They also believe that a Greek exit won’t be a big deal for the Eurozone but a catastrophe for Greece. Thus a quadrant four outcome should be unthinkable for Greece but not overly costly for the Eurozone. On the other hand, a quadrant two outcome, in which Greece holds and gets its way, while the EU caves, is good for Greece but terrible for the Eurozone. The German reform effort will be over. Populist parties across Europe will use Syriza’s success to rebel against austerity and EU rules. A clear debt write-down would need to be avoided at all costs.

These payoff tables model our view of what the parties are calculating for their decisions. The numbers themselves are for illustration. Essentially, our analysis suggests that there is a large divergence in the perceptions of both sides but the rational choice is to hold to their respective positions. In other words, our analysis of the payoffs suggest that the EU won’t offer debt relief and Syriza won’t back down from demanding it.

Da auf beiden Seiten Politiker stehen, werden beide politisch handeln. Syriza kann sich kein Nachgeben leisten (die Griechen würden sie lynchen) und auf der EU Seite ist Hartbleiben alternativlos (exHartwährungsländer + Spanien). Ich sag mal so: Das wird knallen!

Grüße

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