ist jemand bei Poloniex?

Habe heute morgen eine Test-Einzahlung gemacht, bisher keine Gutschrift.
Customer Service angefragt, auch keine Reaktion.

Wenn die Transaktion im Blockexplorer bestätigt worden ist, hilft nur Support kontaktieren.

Da hänge ich auch mal hier an:
https://medium.com/@barmstrong/what-happened-at-the-satoshi-roundtable-6c11a10d8cdf#.ej...

Trouble On The Horizon

An interesting failure scenario was described at the conference that I think is troubling, and shows just how far things have gotten.

The next block reward halving is coming up in July. Let’s say that miners on average are able to mine a coin for $250 (I don’t know the exact number, so this is a guess). After the halving in July their cost to mine a coin will double to $500. If the bitcoin price stays around $425, it will be unprofitable for a number of miners to continue mining.

The implication of this is that we could see a reduction of hashing power on the network at the July halving date. Perhaps in the range of 10–50% (I don’t have a good way to estimate this, if anyone does please post it).

In a worst case, let’s say that 50% of hashing power turns off at the block halving because it is no longer profitable for those miners. This would mean that we start getting blocks mined every 20 minutes on average instead of 10 minutes. But blocks are already 70% full today. If the average confirmation time goes to 20 minutes, it means that we will be at 140% of capacity on every block, and start accumulating a backlog.

Bitcoin has a mechanism to adjust the difficulty of proof-of-work when hashing power changes. This happens every 2,016 blocks, which is normally about two weeks. But if we’re mining a block only every 20 minutes, then this will take four weeks.

It gets worse. Even after four weeks of being over capacity waiting for the difficulty to adjust, there is still up to another two weeks of backlog to churn through before getting back to “normal” (70% capacity and occasional delays). So you are looking at about a six week period of ~2 week confirmation times or drastically higher transaction fees. In addition, with so many pending transactions the mempools of most nodes will fill up, meaning it is likely that most bitcoin transactions will not even relay, much less confirm. This could prevent merchants and wallets from getting a notification about a transaction for weeks.

If this causes the bitcoin price to fall, it will make mining less profitable, and a negative spiral could happen.

It’s unclear what the likelihood is of the above scenario (admitedly, I’ve described a worst case scenario). With the new supply of bitcoin halving, this could also drive the price up. And it’s difficult to estimate what % of hashing power could turn off at the halving. It could be much less than 50%. But I also feel that there is no reason to risk it and it’s incredibly irresponsible to play things so close to the edge. The network today, with 70% of blocks full, is already experiencing congestion issues and backlogs. Any reduction in hashing power will exacerbate the problem.

Auf dieses Problem hatte ich schon Mitte 2014 hingewiesen (untere Häfte meines Postings).
http://www.dasgelbeforum.net/forum_entry.php?id=320200

Bin dennoch weiter optimistisch, was Bitcoin angeht.