Background

Global Strategic Trends is a comprehensive view of the future produced by a research
team at the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC). This edition of Global
Strategic Trends is benchmarked at 12 January 2010.

Conditions of Release

The findings contained in Global Strategic Trends are DCDC’s and the document does not
represent an official position of Her Majesty’s Government or the Ministry of Defence (MOD).

The information is, however, Crown Copyright.

Departmental Direction

Global Strategic Trends is an examination of the strategic context that faces defence and
the challenges and opportunities it provides for the MOD. MOD direction on the DCDC
Strategic Trends Programme stresses the requirement for a comprehensive approach.

DCDC’s Strategic Trends Programme aims to provide a detailed analysis of the future
strategic context for defence out to 2040. This will be an essential input into policy and
concept development. Major outputs include:

• Trends based analysis of the future strategic context;
• Analysis of alternative futures, key risks and shocks, including an assessment of their probability, frequency and magnitude;
• Identification of how shocks might impact on the future strategic context;
• Identification of the broad defence and security implications of this analysis.

Building on previous editions of Global Strategic Trends, the analysis adopts a comprehensive approach to the key drivers and deduces the salient themes out to 2040. In compiling the analysis,the Strategic Trends Programme makes use of a broad and diverse evidence base.

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Link:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/33717/GST4_v9...