siehe

- aktuelll der "Trend" (Aussagen Clintons, Gesundheit, ...)
- und Momentum (Anti-Establishment, ähnlich wie bei Brexit ...)
- weiters lag Nat Silver auch bei den Primaries bzgl. Trump daneben

d.h. könnte noch eine "knappe" Angelegenheit werden.

Bzgl. Wetten, man stelle sich vor man hätte die Prognose Trump als Kandidat vor ein paar Jahren gemacht, die Einlieferung wär gratis gewesen.

"natesilver: Well, if Trump only has to get 44 percent of the vote to win, instead of 50 percent, because there’s a big third-party vote, that makes it a lot easier.

How does Trump win? It’s on the margin rather than with some brilliant strategy, I think. Stay relatively gaffe-free and you’ll probably get a few reluctant Republicans to come home to you. Keep that trust question about Clinton forefront in voters’ minds. Maybe you both go into Election Day with a 40-ish percent favorability rating. And then the third-party voters and the swing states break in a way that’s favorable for you.

Now, that marginal strategy would work a lot better if Trump had a better ground game. But still — it’s not that hard to imagine how he could win."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-is-trump-gaining-on-clinton/